Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc60cb552c724f3c9aea67d109f0c22231a3c1807cada2be5842053e92d4aba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc5…ab0dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 13c | 8,134$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.49 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 80c | 5,180$4,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.1 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 25c | 5,124$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.31 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 3,751$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.03 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 2,573$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,541$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.17 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 20c | 2,508$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.03 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 62c | 2,464$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.66 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,453$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.17 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 2,187$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 20c | 1,830$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.56 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 26c | 1,830$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 41c | 1,740$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.65 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 23c | 1,720$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.93 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,691$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.51 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 61c | 1,664$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 64c | 1,562$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.55 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 48c | 1,500$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.82 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 21c | 1,490$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.52 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 26c | 1,488$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 59c | 1,335$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.33 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 23c | 1,318$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.35 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,259$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,067$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 79c | 1,064$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 1,057$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.92 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 1,053$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.97 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 15c | 1,002$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 28c | 880.55$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 849.57$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.82 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 9c | 823.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 8c | 803.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 29c | 787.91$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.73 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 67c | 699.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 76c | 699.99$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 694.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 22c | 629.73$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 64c | 606.78$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 16c | 599.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 9c | 570$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 21c | 547.62$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 25c | 541.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed Yes | 30c | 502.76$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 25c | 415.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 393.71$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.62 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 389.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes | 26c | 379.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 21c | 379.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aa8dbacked Yes | 51c | 378.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes | 9c | 378.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +15.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 15c | 369.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 360.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 21c | 345.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 49c | 335.51$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed Yes | 45c | 330$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 10c | 327.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 65c | 321.5$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 24c | 302.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 39c | 300$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 29c | 295.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 22c | 280$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 27c | 279.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 9c | 255.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 33c | 244.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 33c | 240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 13c | 236.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 50c | 227.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…6f33backed Yes | 47c | 211.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 30c | 193$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.12 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 21c | 192.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 71c | 189.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 28c | 185$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 30c | 180.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 176.37$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 171.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 70c | 167.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 32c | 167.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 163.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 161$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 44c | 155.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 20c | 154.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…a8cebacked Yes | 37c | 153.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 80c | 151.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 60c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338d…6fd4backed Yes | 8c | 145.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 21c | 140.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 137$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 76c | 131.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 54c | 130.16$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.9 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 31c | 128.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 41c | 124$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 22c | 120.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 46c | 119.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 21c | 118.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.