Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa81940ffa9f01b5b4638b4dc416ca081bc80987e8090f8631a0cc4dbb6a508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,553$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 2c | 4,257$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,157$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,065$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.77 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 2,355$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 2,145$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.93 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 6c | 1,904$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,580$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 80c | 1,404$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.24 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 1,264$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.8 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 999.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 76c | 999.74$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 25c | 642.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.57 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 631.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 33c | 618.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 616.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 604.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed Yes | 17c | 571.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked Yes | 24c | 463.25$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.88 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 460.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 27c | 432.89$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 418.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 26c | 381.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 19c | 340.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 5c | 324.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 4c | 274.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 75c | 266.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 11c | 264.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 34c | 251.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 18c | 240.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 27c | 216.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…1a08backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 12c | 170.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 169.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 30c | 153.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 12c | 145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…75debacked Yes | 17c | 144.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 34c | 144$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 34c | 141.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 136.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 135.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 9c | 132.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…3c69backed Yes | 24c | 109.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 30c | 103.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 35c | 74.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 18c | 72.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 69.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 35c | 59.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 58.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 32c | 58.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 24c | 50.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 40.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 227 | 70.9%161 W · 66 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 33.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked No | 78c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 65c | 27.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…3748backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…db49backed No | 71c | 17.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 78c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.