Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x537483918b0ad440d8d149e53482a87614057671a5aee9af09010713659f6ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 21,493$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 4c | 6,057$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.21 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked No | 4c | 2,816$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 23c | 2,540$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.23 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 2,538$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.08 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 49c | 2,527$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 18c | 2,454$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.91 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 53c | 2,261$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.93 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 6c | 2,127$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 76c | 1,980$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.43 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,943$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.85 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 58c | 1,708$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.38 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 21c | 1,696$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.98 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,429$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.69 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 1,394$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 28c | 1,193$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.06 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 16c | 1,192$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 36c | 1,119$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.41 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 6c | 1,071$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.81 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 969.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 948.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 918$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 24c | 875.76$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 61c | 840.95$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.45 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 61c | 825.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.42 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 770.4$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 732.76$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.83 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 27c | 666.66$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.87 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 15c | 639.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 53c | 578.83$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.33 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 77c | 578.65$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 37c | 542.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 58c | 535.84$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.84 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 17c | 513.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 40c | 506.32$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.48 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 61c | 472.29$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 6c | 444.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 66c | 435$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.07 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed No | 78c | 415.12$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 9c | 393$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 53c | 373.44$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 33c | 364.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed No | 26c | 356.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 307.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 61c | 302.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 286$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…200fbacked No | 9c | 279.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 45c | 256.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.89 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aa8dbacked Yes | 58c | 256.15$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 28c | 255.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.57 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 254.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 252.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 57c | 250.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 35c | 241.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 15c | 235.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 4c | 229.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 7c | 226.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 14c | 225.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 46c | 204.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes | 66c | 199.79$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 59c | 193$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…d237backed Yes | 13c | 192.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked No | 6c | 189.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 184.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 67c | 181.79$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.37 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 57c | 180.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…00eabacked No | 34c | 174.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 42c | 170.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.39 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…4715backed No | 61c | 157.47$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 64c | 156.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…9cb8backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 26c | 141$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 50c | 140.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 46c | 119.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 64c | 117.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 11c | 105.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 36c | 103.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6bd6backed Yes | 69c | 102.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 47c | 97.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 13c | 95.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 55c | 94.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed No | 59c | 84.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 25c | 84.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2df…0415backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.