TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,222
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,105

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,222 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No1c21,493$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1962539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No4c6,057$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2122023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked No4c2,816$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No23c2,540$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.231,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes28c2,538$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815.0853522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No49c2,527$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25011556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No18c2,454$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.911,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes53c2,261$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.935925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No6c2,127$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5329225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes76c1,980$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.4310629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes47c1,943$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.8556429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No58c1,708$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.3863821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No21c1,696$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9842424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c1,429$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.698532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No8c1,394$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5620857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No28c1,193$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0622160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed No16c1,192$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1906936.2%25 W · 44 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes36c1,119$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.4116741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No6c1,071$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes66c1,000$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.8139723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes36c1,000$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6405437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No5c1,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No6c969.89$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.778915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No7c948.68$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6816750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No16c918$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9130955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c875.76$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.540719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes61c840.95$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.4514037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No61c825.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.4234425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c770.4$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2719756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes69c732.76$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.8327647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes27c666.66$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.873622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No15c639.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes53c578.83$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.3317335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes77c578.65$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.3618726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes37c542.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.34829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes58c535.84$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.848332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No17c513.93$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1888017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No40c506.32$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.488634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1912429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22057222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes61c472.29$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.1941230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…0d4ebacked No6c444.26$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2514050%70 W · 70 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3949…4c45backed Yes66c435$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.077140.8%29 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cb5…3238backed No78c415.12$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No8c400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.211831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No9c393$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.232009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a3…121fbacked Yes53c373.44$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.522556%14 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes33c364.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.441,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed No26c356.25$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.854337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No32c307.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6518949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes61c302.1$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3850828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No74c300$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22222610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No37c286$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5524155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…200fbacked No9c279.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0acf…edf9backed Yes45c256.45$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.893759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe9b…aa8dbacked Yes58c256.15$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes28c255.36$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.573850%19 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No15c254.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7310151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c252.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2938848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes57c250.85$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.872128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No35c241.17$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2911558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No15c235.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No4c229.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0919124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No7c226.83$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.835545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes14c225.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3528211%31 W · 251 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes46c204.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0254122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes14c200$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17214913.4%20 W · 129 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes80c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4116716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes66c199.79$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7910652.8%56 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes59c193$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.136350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb79…d237backed Yes13c192.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked No6c189.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0510521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c184.38$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes67c181.79$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3732529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes57c180.84$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.312,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked No34c174.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.72832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes42c170.83$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.3931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0c…4715backed No61c157.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes64c156.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1524423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes45c149.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5934215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff20…9cb8backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No26c141$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.669733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff9…1e60backed No50c140.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8310363.1%65 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.184420.5%9 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes46c119.75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7547032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes64c117.32$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7514427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes12c110$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.83116.1%5 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked Yes11c105.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.7611359.3%67 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes36c103.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0411723.1%27 W · 90 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4381…6bd6backed Yes69c102.94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.799535.8%34 W · 61 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea19…f354backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes53c99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5320532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes47c97.89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.211,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes13c95.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes55c94.79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.7919229.2%56 W · 136 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes56c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed No59c84.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509226.1%24 W · 68 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No25c84.15$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.047042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf2df…0415backed Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+75.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.