Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e6729df6360f09a68a6464de5d62a022dee2ce2f98c4f6b95c93b872e2e11f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 16,142$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.13 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 9,009$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 5c | 8,711$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.4 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 8,154$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.28 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 5,491$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.01 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 6c | 5,398$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 5,384$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 5,031$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.46 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 4,356$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.5 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,992$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.54 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 3,501$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.4 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…ff26backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 3,405$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 6c | 3,239$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.78 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 6c | 3,207$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.53 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 2,980$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,826$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 14c | 2,260$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 9c | 2,029$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 2,006$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 10c | 1,842$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,806$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,674$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,531$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 6c | 1,531$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 9c | 1,412$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,318$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,246$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 3c | 1,124$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,115$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 11c | 1,082$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 4c | 1,077$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 1,046$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 6c | 1,023$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,018$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 10c | 999.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 4c | 997.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 5c | 860.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 8c | 809.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 5c | 745.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 22c | 713.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 3c | 646.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 3c | 640.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 636.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…b996backed Yes | 3c | 634.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 629.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 5c | 603.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 8c | 520.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 20c | 475.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 8c | 453.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 4c | 423.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 9c | 405.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 24c | 385.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 11c | 373.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 8c | 363.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 7c | 343.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 6c | 315.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 9c | 302.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 7c | 296.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…b97fbacked Yes | 6c | 293.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 10c | 283.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360e…c462backed Yes | 9c | 254.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 15c | 253.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 10c | 244.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 8c | 244.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 6c | 229.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 10c | 225.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 9c | 221.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 6c | 217.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3d9fbacked Yes | 8c | 203.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 8c | 199.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 9c | 194.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 16c | 193.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 193.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 191$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 184.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 10c | 176.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 7c | 152.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 15c | 139.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 13c | 103.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 14c | 97.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 14c | 74.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 55.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…681abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 47.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…a768backed No | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9b…7c8fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.