TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8dd…ec86backed No48c2,015$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.231618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No61c1,952$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.6232739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes60c1,628$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.812832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No59c1,268$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.8629642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes40c1,236$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.815149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No49c1,174$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.2723639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes46c1,130$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.619434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c993.06$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7816737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes29c925.36$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.013243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes59c778$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.111421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No11c759.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…1535backed Yes39c751.35$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.321241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes62c750$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.55518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No40c710.74$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.553636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes45c678.3$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.3758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No49c675.28$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.647945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked Yes75c664.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.269851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes60c658.8$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.084643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes40c581.57$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.941376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick46cpaid+40%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No39c536.29$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.99951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes77c500.08$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8513635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes34c500$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32910549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes36c485$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed Yes52c483.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1812030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No40c483.14$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7213534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No37c478.68$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.995147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed No39c474.29$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c412.1$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.382536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes34c400$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2647241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No58c383.03$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes56c360.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.19714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes55c346.07$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.3318746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Yes45c324.65$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.512050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c317.75$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.9616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes50c308.44$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.173933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes57c307$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.031241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes51c299.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1475837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No10c291.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.642128.6%6 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+79.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes65c275.44$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8210544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes39c274$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.142729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Yes65c250.3$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.84128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-87.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes57c247$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.443540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No52c242.74$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.361844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No44c236.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.27837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No48c232.83$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7813333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes44c225.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.471553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+126.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No51c224.54$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.826446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8179…4403backed Yes50c218.55$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.552236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c213$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.1912442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No12c208.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c208.45$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.888351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes65c201.51$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.453066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+88.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1245234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No46c183.65$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.974252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No37c173$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.52142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x887c…9841backed Yes65c165.05$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No24c153.91$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8614337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae79…b9e0backed Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+94.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No42c147.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.166855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No29c142.25$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.65955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes63c140.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.565925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3991…c814backed Yes52c134.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes79c124.69$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.892846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes30c120.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2717041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No42c118.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No17c117.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.912814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c117$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8610645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes56c114.26$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.693330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…f2e5backed Yes56c107.63$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No52c107.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.873959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes57c99.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.994151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No40c95.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.021060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes63c89.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.462441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d03…3bb6backed Yes66c89.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c03…aa91backed No29c88.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No15c88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes48c84.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.158461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb81…4563backed Yes79c81.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.491080%8 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0999…dd96backed No29c81.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.85837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes34c77.35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.16137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No30c72.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.711643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6995…cfb2backed Yes49c70.26$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes62c68.28$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.953240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes29c66.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.723517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafba…d271backed Yes34c65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No48c63.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.684560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b5…326dbacked No40c63.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-75.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.223321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes60c51.79$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.973033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes37c48.18$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.387860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes56c43.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.476150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x926c…b11fbacked Yes60c43.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…18c5backed Yes45c42.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes51c40.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.953420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4c…5c55backed Yes50c40.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f49…d3d9backed Yes74c39.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No55c38.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.431553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No61c38.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.