Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a208934ecc8c8ced126def0519d7634d59d39f0e5deab763d030e2351a980ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2e3…a7e7backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 40c | 4,312$1,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.78 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 60c | 3,523$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.13 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 25c | 2,704$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.23 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 59c | 2,428$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.55 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 34c | 2,175$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.74 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.11 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 51c | 1,965$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 75c | 1,331$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.3 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb037…71f0backed No | 47c | 1,268$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 19c | 1,240$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.78 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Yes | 65c | 773.87$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 769$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.06 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 40c | 696.74$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.29 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 42c | 660$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.51 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 17c | 647.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 19c | 600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 55c | 593.22$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.86 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 66c | 511.52$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 509.97$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 478.68$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 440.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 55c | 440$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 73c | 423.93$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 357.4$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 41c | 350$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 34c | 349.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 348.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.27 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 62c | 305.81$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 47c | 303.11$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.71 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 297$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 34c | 289.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 20c | 255.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 60c | 236.98$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 234.63$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.46 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 52c | 230$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 48c | 217.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 27c | 207.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 206.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…17cdbacked Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 41c | 199$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…050bbacked Yes | 50c | 190.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 50c | 188.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 19c | 183.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 178$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 60c | 164.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 50c | 162.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 160$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.01 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 26c | 151.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…f2e5backed Yes | 70c | 143.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 68c | 142.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 59c | 137.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 55c | 135.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 52c | 134.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 33c | 132.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 30c | 128.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed No | 44c | 119$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 114.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bd…7f96backed Yes | 13c | 112.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 55c | 109.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 24c | 109.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 108.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked No | 49c | 105.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 68c | 101.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…0acfbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db2ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…8a12backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 95.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 94.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 93.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 53c | 89.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 31c | 83.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…92c6backed No | 36c | 82.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 42c | 80.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked No | 62c | 79.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d7fbbacked Yes | 61c | 79.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed No | 75c | 76.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5080…4f30backed Yes | 44c | 73.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…718dbacked No | 65c | 73.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 70.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 67.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…aa91backed No | 62c | 67.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 56c | 65.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 21c | 62.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 68c | 58.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8054backed Yes | 23c | 56.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 63c | 56.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 53c | 55.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 52.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…c794backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…3a84backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…178dbacked No | 65c | 46.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?this page
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?No won
- Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.