TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,984
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,984 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd2e3…a7e7backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes40c4,312$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.7832739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes60c3,523$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.1329642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes25c2,704$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.2329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes59c2,428$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.5529735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes34c2,175$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.749434%32 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes56c2,000$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.1115059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No51c1,965$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.111618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed No75c1,331$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.323639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb037…71f0backed No47c1,268$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes19c1,240$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.78319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Yes65c773.87$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No26c769$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.065311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes40c696.74$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2926431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No42c660$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.517945.6%36 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…1535backed Yes17c647.87$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes19c600$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117241.7%30 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No55c593.22$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.8613534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes66c511.52$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No69c509.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.731844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No72c478.68$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.035147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes33c440.86$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.332536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed No55c440$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.983540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b24…01abbacked No73c423.93$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.279851%50 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No52c357.4$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.449951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed No41c350$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No34c349.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.041233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes28c348.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2718746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No62c305.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes47c303.11$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7116737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c297$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.612442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056f…e487backed No34c289.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.9312030%36 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes20c255.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No60c236.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c234.63$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.468351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes52c230$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.13330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes48c217.73$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7619532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes27c207.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.673122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No54c206.73$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.244252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.83348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0500…17cdbacked Yes55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No41c199$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.575234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c7…050bbacked Yes50c190.31$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes50c188.53$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0813820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes19c183.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6311421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c178$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8610645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes60c164.71$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.993243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No50c162.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.016446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes26c151.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.823420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1315…f2e5backed Yes70c143.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No68c142.38$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.132050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes59c137.23$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a3…b269backed No55c135.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.381457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No52c134.66$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.266855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes33c132.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1311633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes30c128.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa009…ab48backed No44c119$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.243948.7%19 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No71c114.81$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.39955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bd…7f96backed Yes13c112.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes55c109.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.38461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes24c109.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2817041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No56c108.1$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.531346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2583…261abacked No49c105.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed No68c101.64$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.933066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+88.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28e8…0acfbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c61…db2ebacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+70.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.992552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes55c95.43$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.111369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+33.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes40c94.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No47c93.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.33636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Yes53c89.98$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.06837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No31c83.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.462718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-38.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed4…92c6backed No36c82.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No42c80.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.363933.3%13 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked No62c79.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.72441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a80…d7fbbacked Yes61c79.1$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b67…1b07backed No75c76.95$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.242339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5080…4f30backed Yes44c73.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa069…718dbacked No65c73.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes70c70.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.421926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No70c67.62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.371643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c03…aa91backed No62c67.24$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No56c65.19$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.764560%27 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes21c62.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.022917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed No80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.073568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.448653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No68c58.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.581442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4075…8054backed Yes23c56.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No63c56.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.013959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes53c55.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3715149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c52.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2614337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked No59c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+27.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4352…c794backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df9…3a84backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64a…178dbacked No65c46.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6211184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.