Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc99e0dbf5df917d1aa6b16136f0c55ed6377e695ea2f9b6c4649c8e94332be93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 59c | 2,401$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.19 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 1,430$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.16 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 1,053$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.63 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 836.13$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.92 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 52c | 820.68$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.97 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 682.72$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 669.47$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 38c | 526.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.3 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 48c | 486.88$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 479.92$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 73c | 433.4$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.87 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 427.31$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.01 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…b932backed No | 62c | 417$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 343.81$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.36 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 342.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 340.85$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 68c | 335.28$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 328.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 320.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 263$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 259.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 255$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 54c | 232.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 232.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 232$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 219.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 219.16$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 217.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 215.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 54c | 205$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 203.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 197.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 57c | 192.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.93 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 42c | 177.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 59c | 172.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 164.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 162.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 52c | 160.31$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 157.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 39c | 154$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 151.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 61c | 141.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 38c | 135.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 133.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…ec1ebacked Yes | 75c | 132.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 60c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 39c | 127.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 46c | 125.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 73c | 124.42$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 56c | 122.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 37c | 121.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 117.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 115$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 51c | 106.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 14c | 104.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 103.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 38c | 102.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 38c | 101.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 97.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 97.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 90.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 38c | 88.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 52c | 82.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 82.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 26c | 82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 80.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 78.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 76.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 76.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 55c | 75.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 74.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 43c | 73.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 51c | 68.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 40c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 61.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…c40fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 60.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 59.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 56c | 58.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 72c | 58.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 62c | 56.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed No | 20c | 56.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 56.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 54c | 55.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 54.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.