Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bbcec093b3cdf15e1e534938749375ca8e094262c25c945e1707bd5b826efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,013$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.25 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 1,930$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.29 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed No | 80c | 1,634$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…e48ebacked No | 76c | 1,365$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 27c | 1,128$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.69 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 71c | 989.98$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.85 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 965.61$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 30c | 928.14$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.05 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 927.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 686.73$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 19c | 549.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 545.71$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 536.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 32c | 499.51$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed No | 72c | 487.2$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 414.81$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 411.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 30c | 384.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 35c | 378.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 358.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 347.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 345.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 21c | 335$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 333$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 32c | 331.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 327.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed No | 53c | 308.88$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 78c | 302.85$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…4e69backed No | 80c | 252.97$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 237.76$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 223.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 221$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 35c | 218.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed No | 74c | 198.95$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 196.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked No | 51c | 194.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 194$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…518cbacked No | 71c | 193.76$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 66c | 186.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 36c | 168$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 166.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 59c | 163.18$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 160.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 27c | 159$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 157$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 57c | 156.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 27c | 155.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 147.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 77c | 142.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 139.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 138.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed Yes | 38c | 135.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 128.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 80c | 127$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 26c | 118.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes | 46c | 117$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 116.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 60c | 113$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 112.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 106.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 36c | 105.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 105.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 104.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 66c | 103.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 100.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 91.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 20c | 90.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 74c | 83.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…b571backed Yes | 32c | 79.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 78.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 78.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec22…b932backed No | 65c | 77.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 76.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 29c | 75.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed No | 66c | 75.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 67c | 73.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 72.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.