Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ba1085694b6b709bcc8d16d9cdef91391005ded20294741a711effb7857dc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 69c | 2,117$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.31 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 1,224$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,181$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 949.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 36c | 836.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 725.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 2c | 666.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 13c | 583.6$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 480.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 36c | 416.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 4c | 403.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 399.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 353.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 15c | 338.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed No | 77c | 307$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 37c | 279.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 16c | 257.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 251.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 245.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 7c | 238$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…8ed6backed Yes | 6c | 229.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 225.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 10c | 209.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 8c | 201.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 15c | 189.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 32c | 181.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Yes | 13c | 166.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 36c | 162.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked Yes | 38c | 160$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 36c | 138.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 136.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 123.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 10c | 104.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 64c | 104.02$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 11c | 94.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 90.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 34c | 85.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 36c | 80.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 36c | 80.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 17c | 78.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 78c | 77.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 70.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 69.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 61.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 76c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 76c | 24.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.