South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb43b06e7395ba64710440c817ba9a0d9f2e060bf79c3b852b758e0c68d0d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 60c | 1,068$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 58c | 531.11$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 51c | 493.63$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 43c | 419.96$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…bf8cbacked Yes | 72c | 330.1$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 308.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 275$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Yes | 55c | 254.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 226.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 48c | 224.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Yes | 27c | 195$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 37c | 191.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Yes | 48c | 186.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a4f8backed Yes | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…cd87backed Yes | 28c | 177.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +254.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 137.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…a309backed Yes | 56c | 95.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 87.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…0004backed Yes | 36c | 69.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 42c | 66.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…66abbacked Yes | 55c | 55.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 53c | 35.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…4f03backed Yes | 45c | 33.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 31.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…3c50backed Yes | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 29.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…dd97backed Yes | 55c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 23.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 47c | 22.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -16.3wins | -0.36per pick | 43cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed No | 65c | 16.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX?this page
- Will Guadalajara win Liga MX?No won
- Will Pachuca win Liga MX?No won
- Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX?No won
- Will Santos Laguna win Liga MX?No won
- Will Tigres UANL win Liga MX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.