South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48763eee044da3652a5e4e3185874fbbc97f41ec0b10c1eeff77b355b610380a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Yes | 46c | 499.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 4c | 362.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1506…53ecbacked Yes | 3c | 339.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 64c | 321.16$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 55c | 310.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 55c | 307.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 275$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 251.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 212.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1789…e6f7backed Yes | 70c | 135.72$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 118.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d8…7005backed Yes | 51c | 118.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked Yes | 49c | 116.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…fbf3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…3ce8backed Yes | 21c | 94.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 70c | 81.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…871abacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 56c | 52.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 44c | 50.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…db42backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…4c47backed Yes | 54c | 45.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 44.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…8232backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 41c | 35.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 29.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…f123backed Yes | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 28.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…1b5dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e81…f539backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 51c | 23.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 44c | 23.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…b17fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…a259backed No | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pumas UNAM win Liga MX?this page
- Will Cruz Azul win Liga MX?Yes won
- Will Guadalajara win Liga MX?No won
- Will Pachuca win Liga MX?No won
- Will Santos Laguna win Liga MX?No won
- Will Tigres UANL win Liga MX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.