Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05ab8661c04ca27f89fed024c6b7906098a5f46381143f21f44f35fda009afee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,921$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 9c | 1,282$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,118$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 1,114$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 1c | 868.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 4c | 657.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 604.85$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 465.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 461.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 446.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 437.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 411.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 367.19$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 14c | 366.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 18c | 349.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 22c | 337.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 10c | 299.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 295.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 5c | 281.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 21c | 277.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…6fdebacked Yes | 4c | 250.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 8c | 247.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 19c | 245.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 20c | 227.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 30c | 218.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.85 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 11c | 202.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 188.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 24c | 168.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 80c | 160.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…438cbacked Yes | 6c | 157.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 153.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 17c | 152.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed Yes | 25c | 151.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 147.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…cb6abacked Yes | 11c | 135.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 131.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 128.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 12c | 102.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed Yes | 31c | 100.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 95.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 18c | 93.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 29c | 92.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 18c | 89.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 82.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 12c | 80.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…7518backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 69c | 78.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 80c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 68.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 68c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 70c | 64.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9435…c8d5backed No | 79c | 63.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…576fbacked Yes | 32c | 58.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…0ac4backed Yes | 18c | 56.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb65f…fff1backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 31c | 45.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 29c | 40.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed Yes | 25c | 40.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed No | 77c | 35.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 70c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 71c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 69c | 33.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 28.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 26.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 77c | 25.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 71c | 24.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 71c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…b1f2backed No | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…5b4bbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 71c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.