Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a914142f04ee1289d8b428f6b403b54d049091e960695fb22c18c10eb6cc4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 55c | 1,216$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 38c | 1,158$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.65 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 822.05$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 806.36$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 35c | 757.06$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.12 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 35c | 751.76$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.17 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 30c | 720.59$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.87 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 22c | 627.47$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 49c | 543.62$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 462.55$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 37c | 449.33$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 74c | 422.89$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 404.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 386$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 377.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 29c | 365.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 302.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 291.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 54c | 284.8$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.44 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 71c | 276.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 263.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 69c | 259.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 246$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 68c | 227.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 227.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 213$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 212.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 195.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 30c | 180.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 180.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 28c | 159.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 158.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 66c | 152.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 68c | 144.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 143.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 57c | 138.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 135.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 128.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 79c | 122.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 27c | 105.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed Yes | 29c | 104.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 102.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 64c | 102.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 50c | 102.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 24c | 99.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 23c | 98.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 60c | 94.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 22c | 93.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 35c | 84.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57e…a300backed Yes | 24c | 82.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…ced7backed Yes | 26c | 77.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 21c | 77.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 73.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 76c | 69.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 74c | 67.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 74c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 19c | 60.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 60.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…836ebacked Yes | 57c | 60.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 35c | 57.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 57.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 57.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…f5e2backed Yes | 60c | 51.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925f…156cbacked Yes | 65c | 48.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62a…de09backed Yes | 41c | 48.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 77c | 44.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 50c | 43.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 70c | 43.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 75c | 42.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 42.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 47c | 42.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 70c | 42.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 69c | 42.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 48c | 39.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 38.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 69c | 35.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 70c | 34.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.