Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90eb0a2be6365080fc7bae77972df656440044808a383a6ab1298d196d51ec74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 66c | 1,271$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.31 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,007$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.19 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 872.66$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.41 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 39c | 868.09$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.11 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 818$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 63c | 730.57$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.68 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 60c | 730.53$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.24 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 28c | 718.31$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 38c | 696.37$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.46 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 644.39$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.6 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 54c | 585.78$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.68 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 583$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 506.07$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 47c | 472.29$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.29 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 471.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.94 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 47c | 424.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.87 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 36c | 419.98$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.78 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 394.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 393.19$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 355.08$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.89 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 323.34$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…b50ebacked Yes | 35c | 311.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.46 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 74c | 302.6$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 301.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 298.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 8c | 291.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 287$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 68c | 279.46$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 273$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 45c | 258.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 240$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 239.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 47c | 234.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 65c | 226.93$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 60c | 208.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 35c | 207.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 202.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 22c | 199.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 198.85$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 196.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 7c | 191.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 68c | 190.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 68c | 187.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 73c | 178.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 18c | 170.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 165$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 71c | 164.77$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 163.94$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 159.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 58c | 147.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 9c | 146.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…120bbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 135.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 130.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 128.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 40c | 125.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…e1d0backed Yes | 58c | 125.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 48c | 124.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 124.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 123.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 122.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 72c | 121.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 118.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…d0dcbacked Yes | 42c | 114.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 112.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 10c | 109.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed Yes | 35c | 108$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes | 34c | 106.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 21c | 106.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 17c | 105.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5538…b9b6backed No | 68c | 102.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0590…836ebacked Yes | 75c | 102.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…087fbacked No | 67c | 102.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 12c | 102$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 101.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…24d1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 41c | 95.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 95.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 49c | 90.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 50c | 89.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 81.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 56c | 79.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983e…6fdebacked Yes | 76c | 78.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 74.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 73.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…cd42backed Yes | 19c | 72.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6833…2011backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…ee09backed Yes | 42c | 71.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 68.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 66.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.