AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7186710a1ed8e5ab4ba65d51bb22a3b38787710201bdb929b8f8dd7e096f4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 37c | 7,091$2,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.11 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 39c | 4,115$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.33 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 2,591$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.07 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 27c | 1,223$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 1,169$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.43 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 11c | 980.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 62c | 954.72$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.16 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 50c | 893.97$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.87 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 821.58$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.58 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 821.5$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.21 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 44c | 772.72$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.18 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 43c | 737.37$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 33c | 572.31$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 530$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 445.46$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 404$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes | 67c | 390.56$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 389$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…f534backed Yes | 17c | 388.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes | 60c | 340$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 335$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 331.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…b14bbacked Yes | 43c | 331.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 294.17$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 284.64$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 59c | 278.14$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 37c | 250.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 235.25$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 230.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 225.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 212$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 207.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 48c | 206.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…97bebacked Yes | 54c | 203.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 183$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 49c | 179.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 44c | 167.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 51c | 160.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…a01dbacked Yes | 63c | 159.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 23c | 156.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 152.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 152.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 51c | 148$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 60c | 139.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…b279backed Yes | 72c | 139.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…6217backed No | 79c | 126.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 71c | 121.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…9b56backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 113.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 111.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 103.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 102.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 98.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…dbebbacked No | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…523fbacked Yes | 31c | 89.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fe…3a47backed Yes | 62c | 80.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…6065backed Yes | 62c | 80.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e5…649cbacked Yes | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 77.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…6010backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…5596backed No | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 57.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 46.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 44.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed Yes | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 41.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 40.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9d…7d0bbacked Yes | 59c | 38.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 44c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 34c | 36.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…6c18backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…fc1fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 30c | 33.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…5d6cbacked Yes | 74c | 33.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 31.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed No | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 28.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…3b70backed No | 43c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…fda2backed Yes | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…8d4dbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked No | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…98e0backed Yes | 75c | 16.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.