TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes37c7,091$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.115016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes39c4,115$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.3311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c2,591$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.077032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes27c1,223$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No76c1,169$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.434126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes11c980.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7926312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes62c954.72$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.168815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes50c893.97$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.872722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes25c821.58$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.584157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c821.5$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.218942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes44c772.72$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.183925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76db…6987backed Yes43c737.37$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.381338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes33c572.31$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.818241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No64c530$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.85440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No76c445.46$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.285633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No77c404$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.587943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…1dc7backed Yes67c390.56$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No65c389$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.98741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2412…f534backed Yes17c388.76$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-72.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c99…6efbbacked Yes60c340$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c335$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.787538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c331.8$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.431,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…b14bbacked Yes43c331.68$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055538.2%21 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c294.17$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.886439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c284.64$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1619432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No59c278.14$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.482646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391f…b017backed Yes37c250.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.651723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No36c235.25$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.995012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes5c230.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.115047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c225.44$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.294946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes36c212$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4817824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes22c207.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes48c206.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c6a…97bebacked Yes54c203.66$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c183$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…0357backed Yes49c179.76$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.293762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes44c167.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.551330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No51c160.27$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5310561.9%65 W · 40 L+17.4wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+34.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ebf…a01dbacked Yes63c159.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes23c156.4$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.031010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No66c152.71$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.673834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No42c152.19$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.654736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes51c148$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4811636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No60c139.5$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1717350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x953d…b279backed Yes72c139.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6999…6217backed No79c126.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No71c121.39$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.826647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…9b56backed No38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No39c113.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.233253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No56c111.27$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.475848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c103.43$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.725843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No54c102.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.826448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No72c98.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.492540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad8…dbebbacked No40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.042552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ca…523fbacked Yes31c89.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75fe…3a47backed Yes62c80.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…6065backed Yes62c80.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70e5…649cbacked Yes68c80$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+166.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No54c77.16$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.412544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe949…6010backed No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2814…5596backed No42c64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c59.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.97448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No74c57.68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.92133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c54$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.53122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No79c48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.024055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No41c46.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.112737%10 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No39c44.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.182650%13 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa619…1103backed Yes65c43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No67c41.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7614281%115 W · 27 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ffa…864cbacked No78c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.023100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No78c40.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.782330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9d…7d0bbacked Yes59c38.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No44c37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.633243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No34c36.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.91450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No79c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e4…6c18backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb76…fc1fbacked Yes35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked No30c33.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.69128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f3…5d6cbacked Yes74c33.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes43c31.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7489317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c31.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.426656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf33…1e17backed No57c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.471266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No37c28.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.062552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aed…3b70backed No43c27.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.541030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-48.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9621…fda2backed Yes75c26.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked No50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.92937.9%11 W · 18 L+4.9wins+0.17per pick21cpaid+50.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4e1c…8d4dbacked Yes70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked No60c20.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7310938.5%42 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…98e0backed Yes75c16.77$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.