TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76db…6987backed Yes70c3,714$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.131338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes76c3,356$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.82458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes53c2,655$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.3911723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No29c2,475$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.387032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked No40c2,171$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.445016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No27c1,876$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.485012%6 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x500e…79d4backed Yes55c1,606$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.625100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No26c1,356$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.824126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No24c1,200$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.614157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0019…6629backed Yes56c957.47$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e84…8e88backed Yes59c910.1$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.06666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes71c562.55$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.361163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c536.5$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.615440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No44c534.35$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.838942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed No56c513.96$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.883925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…ac75backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2004100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd189…5378backed Yes61c456.24$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0456…b296backed Yes66c455.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No26c445.69$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.495633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79d2…3585backed Yes61c407.58$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.08366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a7c…1dc7backed No65c398.71$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No29c381.15$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.991,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No21c350.26$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.427448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No31c344.71$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.386647%31 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes75c331.59$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.591127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No21c329.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.357943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b5c…4177backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No28c295.83$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.246439.1%25 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No35c283.54$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9119432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No4c271.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1126312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No24c266.33$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.486448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No24c250.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0347938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No34c220.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.474946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No27c219.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.555843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No12c216.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263013.3%4 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-68.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No54c216.25$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.042343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe226…a207backed Yes74c207.76$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.67988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4954…66d4backed Yes74c203.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a37…5a89backed Yes68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No40c199.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No38c183$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.28547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No42c182.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5815047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes46c167.49$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.741330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No33c164.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.83834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes36c163.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No25c158.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.145848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c154.19$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.34736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c153$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.138741.4%36 W · 51 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No49c147.58$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0189317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes32c144.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.858241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No25c133.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.622646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0078…c74ebacked Yes79c132.42$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e4…2872backed Yes80c131.49$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No22c124.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.882977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No26c121.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.937538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c120$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.97041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No41c112.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.62544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes55c100.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.091172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+63%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No31c99.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.191450%7 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No21c90.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.122343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No24c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c86.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.722540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7438…b741backed No21c74.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…6065backed No67c74.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No71c73.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4410938.5%42 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No42c70.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6322019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No69c67.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked No25c66.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.541926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes30c65.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.271127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No36c57.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.717350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No24c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.953122.6%7 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No21c52.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.984055%22 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e28…0b1ebacked Yes77c51.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c50.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5325632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c6…c92cbacked Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba8…2bdfbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+149.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23a8…8004backed Yes30c49.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.372437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No48c47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.463243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes29c46.58$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0720731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…dbebbacked No36c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.562552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…fa12backed No68c44.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes46c43.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.897338.4%28 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No51c43.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.191752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa619…1103backed No69c42.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.661040%4 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b33…3134backed No73c40.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes71c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No28c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.532552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb22e…6d88backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.71475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed74…d5debacked Yes51c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe917…9612backed Yes59c33.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.722722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…ecedbacked Yes63c33.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b9d…7d0bbacked No72c32.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No41c31.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.16656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.257426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf33…1e17backed Yes55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No61c29.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.952236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes49c29.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7414421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.