AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efb1d342294b44612af25115843b3d0e09a336d48b94ab8c3e5d7c97147e2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 70c | 3,714$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 76c | 3,356$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.8 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 53c | 2,655$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.39 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 2,475$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.38 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 40c | 2,171$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.44 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 1,876$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.48 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…79d4backed Yes | 55c | 1,606$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 26c | 1,356$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 24c | 1,200$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.61 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0019…6629backed Yes | 56c | 957.47$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8e88backed Yes | 59c | 910.1$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 71c | 562.55$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 536.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 534.35$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.83 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 56c | 513.96$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.88 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…ac75backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…5378backed Yes | 61c | 456.24$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0456…b296backed Yes | 66c | 455.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 26c | 445.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…3585backed Yes | 61c | 407.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7c…1dc7backed No | 65c | 398.71$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 381.15$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 350.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 31c | 344.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 75c | 331.59$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 21c | 329.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…4177backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 295.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 283.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 271.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 24c | 266.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 250.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 220.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 219.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 12c | 216.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 216.25$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe226…a207backed Yes | 74c | 207.76$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…66d4backed Yes | 74c | 203.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…5a89backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked No | 40c | 199.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 183$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 182.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 46c | 167.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 164.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 36c | 163.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 25c | 158.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 154.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 153$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 147.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 32c | 144.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 25c | 133.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…c74ebacked Yes | 79c | 132.42$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…2872backed Yes | 80c | 131.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 124.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 26c | 121.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 41c | 112.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 55c | 100.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 31c | 99.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 21c | 90.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 86.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 21c | 74.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…6065backed No | 67c | 74.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 71c | 73.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 42c | 70.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 69c | 67.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 25c | 66.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 30c | 65.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 36c | 57.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 21c | 52.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…0b1ebacked Yes | 77c | 51.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 50.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…c92cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba8…2bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 30c | 49.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 48c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 46.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…dbebbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a86…fa12backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 46c | 43.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…33e2backed No | 51c | 43.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…1103backed No | 69c | 42.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…3134backed No | 73c | 40.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…6d88backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed74…d5debacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 59c | 33.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…ecedbacked Yes | 63c | 33.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9d…7d0bbacked No | 72c | 32.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 29.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 29.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.