Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e5bc555597ea65a73f2dcfe1b714c7a560dec04ecd9068b5da762d8a44ed578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 72c | 1,502$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.93 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 72c | 1,038$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 802.8$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 724.91$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 50c | 703.58$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.58 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 62c | 627.37$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.95 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 554.63$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 47c | 548.36$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.41 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 436.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 38c | 427$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 418.51$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 57c | 360.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 353.75$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 30c | 322.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 306.23$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7914…8ba1backed No | 40c | 296.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 49c | 279.05$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 258$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 256.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 59c | 254.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 229.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 222.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 219.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 202.65$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 23c | 199.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 197.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 21c | 181.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 181.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.67 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked Yes | 60c | 165.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 21c | 164.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 164$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 153.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 149.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 54c | 140.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 138.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 65c | 138$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 136$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 130.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 124.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 45c | 119.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 119.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 53c | 113.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 41c | 109.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 105.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed Yes | 61c | 104.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 31c | 104.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 51c | 102.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 101.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 100.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 39c | 99.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 99.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 98.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 92.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 92.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 91.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 52c | 89.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 34c | 88.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 86.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 68c | 84.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 59c | 80.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 60c | 78.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 63c | 71.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 31c | 68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 48c | 67.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 60c | 66.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 65.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 45c | 64.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…152cbacked No | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 57c | 62.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…ede0backed No | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 39c | 61.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 47c | 61.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 62c | 60.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…83f2backed Yes | 77c | 56.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 56.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 45c | 56.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 56.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 54.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 36c | 54.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 58c | 54.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 39c | 50.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 57c | 49.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 48.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a42…7793backed No | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.