Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa981316747524eac792ea0f7ae02a5c1bcce8eb82af03e37252b6bbe210944cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 2,984$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 14c | 1,214$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 67c | 1,012$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.78 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 885.66$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 826.14$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.69 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 758.14$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 77c | 642.21$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 608.24$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 607.56$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 510.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 401$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 390.25$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 61c | 387$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 385.77$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 358.09$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 49c | 331.32$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 31c | 328.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 327.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 322.82$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 308.62$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 62c | 283.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 275.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 40c | 270.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 23c | 247.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 204.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 46c | 185.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 183$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 180.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 69c | 166.8$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b83…d0ffbacked Yes | 26c | 159.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 34c | 156.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked Yes | 38c | 136.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 130.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 129.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 42c | 120.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…427cbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…08e1backed No | 63c | 119.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 75c | 117.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 107.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 28c | 107.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 34c | 95.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.38 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 64c | 94.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 79c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 91.71$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 89.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 84.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 83.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x68f2…97ccbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 35c | 82.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 79.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 31c | 79.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 80c | 78.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 72.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 29c | 70.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 38c | 69.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 64c | 69.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 30c | 66.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 54c | 65.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 35c | 63.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 20c | 61.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 31c | 60.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 69c | 60.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 58.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 57.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 56.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 55.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…022dbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 40c | 54.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 28c | 53.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 52.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 47.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 46.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 36c | 45.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 71c | 42.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 64c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 41.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 65c | 41.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 63c | 40.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 25c | 40.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 38.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 37.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 39c | 37.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.