World Politics · resolved market
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffc31a708f08c2b052b79c9e28c58cbdae774252f1cf229a74e22a74e4c5870a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 31c | 518.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.78 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 445.82$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 431.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 353.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 283$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed Yes | 40c | 252.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed Yes | 42c | 231.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 25c | 226.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 199.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 154$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 57c | 134.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 126.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 43c | 120.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed Yes | 33c | 104.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…7da8backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 39c | 92.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 72c | 80.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 28c | 67.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 66.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e5…7124backed Yes | 32c | 63.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…e727backed Yes | 32c | 59.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 57.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 57.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…625ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 72c | 41.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…c7debacked Yes | 42c | 40.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 35.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…e98cbacked No | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de6…b0f0backed No | 69c | 35.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…7b11backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…a66abacked No | 69c | 33.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…5bdebacked No | 69c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…1e55backed No | 69c | 26.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 58c | 23.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…6cb1backed No | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed No | 67c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…25eabacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?this page
- Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.