AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60b03b25bc043cf91efb586f99020e0f03817312c8a500f4b14c073dc8e3c5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe917…9612backed Yes | 4c | 16,965$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.24 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 5c | 13,517$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.99 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 5c | 10,922$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.11 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…61b4backed Yes | 2c | 8,247$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.81 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,128$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,879$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 6,535$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.97 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,908$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76db…6987backed Yes | 3c | 5,082$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,230$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,128$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,715$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,175$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 1,833$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 1,685$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.69 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…1b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,624$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c26…1432backed Yes | 11c | 1,389$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 63c | 1,006$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.82 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 887.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 615.96$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.61 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 7c | 569.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 566.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 7c | 514.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes | 59c | 504.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 3c | 499.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 465.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 45c | 421.53$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…0b41backed Yes | 48c | 300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed Yes | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 254.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 6c | 238.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 31c | 235$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 8c | 233.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 25c | 180.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 179.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 6c | 174.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 174.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.91 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 144.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 45c | 113.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6005…9eb1backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 34c | 107.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 50c | 104.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 100.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 40c | 93.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 61c | 91.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…8bddbacked Yes | 41c | 80.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…acd8backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373f…1878backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…1a5abacked Yes | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…5038backed Yes | 35c | 65.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 26c | 60.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…de8cbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…7631backed Yes | 44c | 58.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…42e9backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 52.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…9099backed Yes | 36c | 51.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…16ffbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…5499backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…a9fbbacked Yes | 50c | 49.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…2e87backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10f…07c1backed Yes | 44c | 48.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d73…bda8backed Yes | 45c | 46.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe9…be99backed Yes | 42c | 45.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 44.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fc…b07bbacked Yes | 36c | 44.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65c…645bbacked Yes | 36c | 43.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd884…9323backed Yes | 46c | 43.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…7159backed Yes | 44c | 40.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 56cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x341e…2a9ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 32c | 35.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…b191backed Yes | 42c | 34.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 38c | 33.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…c079backed Yes | 36c | 33.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…4baebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…29f4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…5d81backed Yes | 53c | 29.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 64c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…06ecbacked Yes | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…bfc7backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 48c | 24.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 21.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.