AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbea2ae1bb072aa720227b2ddab6b762ad54088aafdfa4bb57d94642f09ec3f45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $146,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe917…9612backed No | 8c | 17,968$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.73 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 6c | 17,968$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.01 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 6c | 8,021$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.02 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 6,355$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.43 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 8c | 5,590$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.24 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,620$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 4,099$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 1c | 3,552$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 2c | 2,992$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 2,900$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 2,818$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 13c | 2,301$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.53 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 71c | 2,064$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.39 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,641$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked No | 4c | 1,474$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 4c | 1,437$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,258$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 3c | 1,207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 1,094$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 44c | 1,074$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.65 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd59…0231backed No | 4c | 1,063$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 2c | 1,061$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…79d4backed Yes | 70c | 1,030$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 18c | 1,029$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.41 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 907.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 2c | 882.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 28c | 871.22$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 4c | 818.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…6cc9backed No | 3c | 766.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 14c | 711.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 2c | 683.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 12c | 671.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 2c | 663.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 3c | 616.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 5c | 606.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 594$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 4c | 579.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 15c | 566.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 35c | 467.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…bec0backed Yes | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 9c | 430.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 418.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 43c | 410.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.85 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…4126backed Yes | 74c | 379.75$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 3c | 375.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 356.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…d9d6backed No | 4c | 348.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 4c | 343.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 336.76$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 324.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked No | 62c | 319.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 38c | 316$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 7c | 288.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 285.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 40c | 266.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9519backed Yes | 80c | 250.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked No | 5c | 233.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 229.15$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625a…867ebacked Yes | 33c | 214.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 35cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 13c | 207.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c33fbacked No | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 30c | 197.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 191$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…64a7backed Yes | 61c | 164.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 13c | 163$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…a9ccbacked No | 19c | 162.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 151.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 38c | 145$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…374bbacked Yes | 51c | 144.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 12c | 137.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 129.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes | 40c | 129.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 10c | 125.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 125$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 121.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 117$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 57c | 112.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 13c | 92.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed No | 14c | 87.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 12c | 82.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6507…7d79backed Yes | 36c | 73.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 77c | 66.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 62.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…a888backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…4501backed Yes | 61c | 39.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 77c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Yes | 40c | 36.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…acb6backed Yes | 73c | 34.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?this page
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.