Movies · resolved market
Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a0f84e43bb74cac6584a7ba052884a0a5d73d6a1f8170990ba734e9c5e90a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30a6…64b7backed Yes | 0c | 7,039$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 24c | 2,536$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.52 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 22c | 1,316$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.07 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 885.25$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 873.92$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 526.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 323.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 293.41$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 21c | 283.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 275$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 230$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…56c4backed Yes | 7c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 155$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 23c | 152.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…261abacked Yes | 39c | 148.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 147.97$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 77c | 137$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 77c | 111$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 34c | 109.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 103$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 18c | 56.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 77c | 25.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 25m?this page
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?No won
- Will "Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 20m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.