Movies · resolved market
Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba91a9aa63dcccc0a177854b14cbf748301b04b6593a35ace971cf9e0cdc2bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 73c | 8,865$6,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 28c | 7,249$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.67 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 74c | 805.53$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.87 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 26c | 649.91$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 74c | 608.1$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 24c | 513.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 70c | 497.8$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 25c | 431.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed Yes | 74c | 407.69$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 4c | 356.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked Yes | 77c | 327.11$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 286.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 26c | 276.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 256.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Yes | 80c | 251.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 26c | 248.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 30c | 208.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7c…4d59backed Yes | 73c | 202.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 18c | 177$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 23c | 166$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 20c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 156.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 29c | 129.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 71c | 126.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 77c | 72.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 67.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc691…389cbacked No | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…367cbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 67c | 51.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 27c | 51.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…6732backed Yes | 72c | 46.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 45.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f70…00e9backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…594bbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…cfaebacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed Yes | 73c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…2047backed Yes | 74c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 74c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 74c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…0a18backed Yes | 75c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 67c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?this page
- Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?No won
- Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.