Movies · resolved market
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f886f00e8b2b799f7823e3be8ff11f7589a8b87dd23978f7be11692e2953662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 25c | 4,406$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.44 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 72c | 2,823$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.61 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 27c | 796.73$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.44 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 638.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 608.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 513.31$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 80c | 499.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 16c | 480.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 28c | 189.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 185$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 24c | 134.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 129.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 121.42$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 103$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 82.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 23c | 74.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 37.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 74c | 36.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed No | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 15.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?this page
- Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?No won
- Will "Liberation" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.