CS2 · resolved market
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd34ebc39322ab79390b3f14e4262faf0a17a4973d4f056e70af3da50fbff755
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $534,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $513,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc972…708ebacked Yes | 50c | 142,805$72,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,115.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…2dd7backed No | 50c | 142,800$70,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,113 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…5818backed No | 50c | 100,600$50,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,012 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…ae73backed Yes | 50c | 100,600$50,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,012 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 6,171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 0c | 5,425$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,516$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 229 | 43.7%100 W · 129 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…3e90backed Yes | 8c | 1,599$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,343$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 2,326 | 45.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,295$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…a0dbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,022$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 381 | 57.7%220 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 2c | 859.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 825$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…265ebacked Yes | 8c | 505$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed Yes | 13c | 500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…d54ebacked Yes | 4c | 388.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed Yes | 15c | 359.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…7b58backed Yes | 8c | 347.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…09a1backed Yes | 4c | 333.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +285.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes | 10c | 327.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 12c | 245$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd999…4a20backed Yes | 34c | 236.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes | 12c | 235.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…b74bbacked Yes | 9c | 195.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 63c | 132.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed No | 66c | 120.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…1f4bbacked No | 35c | 97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed No | 51c | 82.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…12bfbacked Yes | 37c | 61.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…e28cbacked Yes | 35c | 59.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…426ebacked Yes | 23c | 51.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73f…6523backed Yes | 40c | 48.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…ebbbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…1d95backed No | 71c | 45.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e0…e3b4backed Yes | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 38.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…7b17backed Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…b840backed Yes | 46c | 21.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?this page
- Will Valve remove Ancient from the Map Pool?No won
- Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool?No won
- Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool?No won
- Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool?No won
- Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool?No won
- Will Valve remove Train from the Map Pool?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.