Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fc7b95b05995387b46533334dd04ce93159b91922ad5153ee4768294b653c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 28c | 2,419$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.01 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 70c | 1,300$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.41 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 722.45$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 28c | 548.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 352.41$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 225.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 210.74$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 189.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 186.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 182$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 32c | 181.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 160.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 80c | 155.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 151.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 147.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 13c | 144.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 25c | 131$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 130$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…24e2backed Yes | 24c | 118.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 118.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 19c | 116.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 111.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 60c | 105.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 100.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 100.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 20c | 87.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 77.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 77.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…d08abacked Yes | 28c | 70.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 66.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 16c | 65.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 63.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 61.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 59.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 59.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 58.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 72c | 55.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 29c | 54.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked No | 75c | 53.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 53.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 50.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 27c | 50.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 50.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 46.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 41.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 74c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 68c | 34.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed Yes | 38c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 26.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 26.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 68c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…773dbacked No | 77c | 13.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.