Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fd43eef26525328ae494ca12f8cc88f21422c7f3dee9d92eed93e3e8f20bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 803.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 61c | 745.73$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.54 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 45c | 642.29$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.55 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 19c | 519.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 354.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 336.53$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 308.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 266.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 47c | 240.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 210.19$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 203.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 35c | 183.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Yes | 80c | 169.63$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…d08abacked Yes | 38c | 168.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 160.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 145.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 137.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 135.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 128.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 118.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 116.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 37c | 114.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 112$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 108.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 97.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 65c | 90.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 54c | 89.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 82.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 74.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 69.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 73c | 68.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 66.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 62.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 43c | 60.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 27c | 57.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 57.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…a02dbacked Yes | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 53.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885a…4e58backed No | 42c | 52.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 38c | 50.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…f06ebacked Yes | 70c | 45.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 34c | 43.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed No | 63c | 42.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 38.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 77c | 35.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 36c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 34.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 32.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 32.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 69c | 29.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 26.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 68c | 25.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 67c | 25.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 23.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 73c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 78c | 17.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 17.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.