Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1782c11f0d13676c5c6206d053eb6fa6bd29de73989a658b0b4c6812ee30e82c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 5,078$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 22c | 631$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 7c | 502.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 448.45$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 26c | 346.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 71c | 343.75$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 261.45$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 23c | 173.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 30c | 168.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…d08abacked Yes | 33c | 153.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 143$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 125.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 20c | 124.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 110.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 105.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 14c | 105.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 104.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 103.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 34c | 103.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 99.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 87.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 76c | 78.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 77.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 76.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 66.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…2002backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 31c | 58.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 49.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 32c | 43.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 35.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 26.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 23.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 78c | 23.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1655…08e1backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 38°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 39°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.