Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b8ca25b7668fc824c5049ae78cd3f910b65607bc95a38086d93544fad0e1e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 11,899$2,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 41c | 7,032$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.62 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed No | 57c | 2,329$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 45c | 2,217$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.06 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 58c | 1,364$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.64 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 1,152$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.73 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 49c | 700$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked No | 71c | 600.74$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 582.18$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.27 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 575.63$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.67 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 564.9$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 54c | 457.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.95 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 54c | 442.01$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 429.07$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 328$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 51c | 285$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 270$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 270$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 266.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 55c | 266$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 258.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 59c | 254.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 250.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 221.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 56c | 209$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 208.97$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 63c | 206.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bf65backed No | 52c | 191.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 63c | 155.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2b…37e8backed No | 67c | 137.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 131.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 50c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 51c | 129.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 129.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…2e03backed Yes | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 52c | 109.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 60c | 108.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…ac11backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 73.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 52c | 63.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…8b39backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 57.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 57.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 54.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…87e1backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 42.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 55c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 57c | 24.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 53c | 23.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 46c | 22.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed Yes | 49c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3714…1af6backed No | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?this page
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May?No won
- Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.