World Politics · resolved market
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88be7d8303a38d545170ae4e891de00dcdc6e888693dc77c009de08cbdaac6f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 16c | 5,403$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.66 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 15c | 3,180$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.84 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 3,104$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.39 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 12c | 1,658$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 98 | 22.4%22 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 1,474$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 1,346$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.59 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,146$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.32 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 1,137$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.93 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 18c | 991.75$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Yes | 78c | 944.99$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.38 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +105%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 766.17$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 712.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 16c | 699.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 17c | 696.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 10c | 631.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked Yes | 79c | 599.98$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 514.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 14c | 513.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf61…3156backed Yes | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +240%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 367$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 17c | 363.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 14c | 359$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 18c | 357.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 17c | 323$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 19c | 296.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 80c | 295.6$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 79c | 282.44$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 15c | 230$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 30c | 229.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 216.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b6…29bbbacked No | 28c | 192.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 18c | 192.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed Yes | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 7c | 163.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 162.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 159.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 13c | 158.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 152$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked No | 18c | 149.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 16c | 142.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 17c | 142$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 30c | 136.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 125.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 12c | 122.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa353…d605backed Yes | 79c | 122.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 120.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 13c | 116.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…19f8backed No | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 97.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…1c78backed Yes | 76c | 92.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd5…56bfbacked Yes | 80c | 84.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 16c | 83.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…4498backed Yes | 79c | 76.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 17c | 68.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 67c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa8…1e8dbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…9314backed Yes | 72c | 58.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 61c | 54.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 76c | 48.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf428…9f49backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbe…2237backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…9bb4backed No | 73c | 17.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?No won
- Will someone else advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.