World Politics · resolved market
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a896f18ae432d57e58e5ff10e6afc459c2aad377bdb054acdf7206a8d480ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes | 13c | 19,739$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 13cpaid | +418.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…8565backed Yes | 15c | 7,876$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +208.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…70c9backed Yes | 14c | 4,238$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac26…06ffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,842$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…d6ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,723$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 6c | 795.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2e…0d48backed Yes | 17c | 769.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 676.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…d745backed Yes | 12c | 426.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Yes | 15c | 405.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6186…a80dbacked Yes | 14c | 381.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 13c | 346.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 344.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 261.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…4124backed Yes | 12c | 168.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…f8c9backed Yes | 15c | 152$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…ab8bbacked Yes | 15c | 129.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…bda7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will someone else advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.