F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9257d402db62977415d9c61c8b244c7764873af15495c3a7cee543fa47de5b68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,527$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.31 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 52c | 2,461$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.44 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,230$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 18c | 1,984$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.82 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked No | 56c | 1,949$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 1,710$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,415$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…316cbacked No | 5c | 1,153$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed No | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 54c | 999.85$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.92 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 17c | 905.04$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…706fbacked Yes | 63c | 881.93$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.72 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…911bbacked No | 9c | 881.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 44c | 860.65$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.36 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 40c | 826.26$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.06 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 58c | 780.68$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.47 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 54c | 758.5$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.09 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Yes | 46c | 713.01$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 44c | 558.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.02 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 32c | 522.26$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.17 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9186…9220backed Yes | 41c | 499.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…b059backed No | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…79b6backed No | 55c | 499.96$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 35c | 488.07$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 52c | 484.62$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.87 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Yes | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 56c | 267.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed No | 57c | 249.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…df06backed Yes | 47c | 211$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…9996backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 182.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 52c | 167.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.68 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 53c | 146.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes | 47c | 141.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 123.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 66c | 111.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63b…b8cfbacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…30a6backed Yes | 43c | 105.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…bb74backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 45c | 93.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 46c | 87.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 14c | 85.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 56c | 71.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 54c | 60.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 29c | 55.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…b829backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…3627backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 53c | 43.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…7cd9backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…590abacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 46c | 38.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 48c | 33.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 33.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…e422backed Yes | 62c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 35c | 30.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed No | 59c | 28.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 40c | 25.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 52c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…be44backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 52c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 74c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.