NBA · resolved market
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x751209175bad31623cf007e485764b087f89b48c85235b55e9ecdaa380445f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 49c | 5,929$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.67 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 51c | 5,479$2,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.31 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 62c | 2,542$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.49 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 47c | 1,878$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.56 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9926…aea3backed Yes | 52c | 1,695$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 43c | 1,629$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 1,600$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.71 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 48c | 609.36$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.31 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 49c | 563.14$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.55 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 33c | 509.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 57c | 487.71$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.25 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 51c | 471.95$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.51 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1593backed No | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 39cpaid | +290.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…9efcbacked No | 55c | 387.64$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Yes | 63c | 368.93$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 34c | 368.29$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 42c | 364.22$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9479…79b6backed Yes | 51c | 355.13$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 312.64$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 285$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.45 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 278.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Yes | 74c | 271.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 260.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Yes | 69c | 209.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…6c0ebacked Yes | 51c | 197.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…54f5backed Yes | 48c | 194.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…8966backed Yes | 46c | 187.64$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad17…5ca6backed Yes | 52c | 175.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 65c | 172.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked Yes | 60c | 167.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Yes | 62c | 163.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 28c | 163.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 61c | 162.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 209 | 65.6%137 W · 72 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…6185backed Yes | 57c | 154.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…7be9backed Yes | 76c | 143.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.54per pick | 70cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes | 69c | 143.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…99a8backed Yes | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 66c | 119.77$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 62c | 116.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 58c | 116$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…cc59backed Yes | 49c | 111.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 27c | 108$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…cc98backed Yes | 51c | 106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…9670backed Yes | 56c | 101.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 100.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1120…ac3ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…c7c2backed No | 56c | 98.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 64c | 96.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed Yes | 76c | 91.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 67.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7212…f30dbacked Yes | 70c | 60.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6515…b867backed No | 53c | 58.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 31c | 57.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 48c | 50.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…53d7backed Yes | 51c | 50.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 29c | 49.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 61c | 49.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…d036backed No | 47c | 48.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 30c | 45.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed No | 60c | 44.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…7cc4backed Yes | 48c | 40.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 45c | 36.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 40c | 31.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8faa…1b5cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -11.2wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 27.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 53c | 25.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…de8dbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2026…3eb4backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…3e38backed Yes | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?this page
- Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.