NBA · resolved market
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e885be68e6de73a97d7bce87ba313cd0f3a1af51fb4f0acf99cbd88fa379703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce0d…ca2cbacked Yes | 4c | 20,993$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Yes | 5c | 15,766$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.14 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc5…9fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,520$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 2c | 2,833$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Yes | 4c | 2,800$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7005…c4d5backed Yes | 6c | 2,437$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,035$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 7c | 1,981$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,707$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,698$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…5684backed Yes | 4c | 1,479$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 1,028$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f82…b06cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,023$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb5…11babacked Yes | 8c | 799.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Yes | 7c | 753.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…8bf9backed Yes | 5c | 647.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0662…7b7ebacked Yes | 7c | 400.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…474fbacked Yes | 9c | 347.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 6c | 249.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 9c | 242.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 9c | 149.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?this page
- Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?No won
- Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.