Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a2a4fa7881eb0b80814a78e80818d765b90167603de484a793b303cc2d74e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 383.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 36c | 349.88$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 312.31$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 274.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 30c | 266.83$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 41c | 220.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 194.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 176.33$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 151.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 144.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 141.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 140.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 22c | 135.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 124.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 119.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 114.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 112.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 109.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 107.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 104.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 79c | 97.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 82.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 73.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 34c | 67.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 65c | 66.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 62c | 63.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 18c | 63.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 59.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 62c | 58.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked No | 78c | 57.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 57.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 67c | 56.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 31c | 55.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 55.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 64c | 50.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 65c | 49.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 39c | 46.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 62c | 44.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 35.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 32.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 58c | 31.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 70c | 31.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 68c | 30.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 29.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 28.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 72c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 74c | 26.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 61c | 23.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…3b27backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1e43backed No | 71c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.