Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ebb80dbedc551b3b35c02b3df90ceea42dfcb4ce440a2d0792109d50e9915fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.52 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 51c | 588.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.73 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 511.48$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 506.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 24c | 389.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 57c | 315.55$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.95 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 312.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 293.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 241.46$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 238.09$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 221.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 43c | 214$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 47c | 172.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 62c | 169.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 50c | 155.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 152.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 149.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 76c | 149.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 39c | 143.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 138.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 30c | 121.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 42c | 120.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 25c | 117.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 65c | 114.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 78c | 112.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 54c | 111.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 14c | 109.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 108.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 39c | 108.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 56c | 108.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 106.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 105.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 73c | 104.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 36c | 86.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 43c | 77.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 68c | 73.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 71.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 54c | 69.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 67.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 64.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 75c | 63.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb908…d807backed Yes | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 43c | 59.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 37c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 51.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 39c | 51.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 42c | 49.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 47.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 58c | 44.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 62c | 43.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 35c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 55c | 40.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 50c | 40.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 56c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 54c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 39c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…d8b4backed No | 41c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 51c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 56c | 27.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…9fddbacked Yes | 71c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 47c | 26.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 42c | 25.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 67c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 47c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1be…e99fbacked Yes | 49c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7d…9cfbbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 56c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.