Movies · resolved market
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bd8413f32fea4c55537aa4c365bacfbc77a19a6c61dc385474eb10daff25fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 23c | 7,795$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,975.53 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 72c | 4,983$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.76 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 43c | 3,580$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.03 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed No | 14c | 602.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 600.53$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.95 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 30c | 593.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.71 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…747cbacked Yes | 4c | 561$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +10.1wins | +0.42per pick | 37cpaid | +355.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 6c | 464.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 5c | 421.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 420.22$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.92 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 400$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 5c | 362.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 20c | 360$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 255.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.31 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 241.75$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 195$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 25c | 178.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 77c | 158.24$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 148.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 20c | 126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 100.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed No | 20c | 76.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 71c | 44.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 41c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 71c | 20.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 111 | 84.7%94 W · 17 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.