Movies · resolved market
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0162851c8404f765e9aca3e6fe7a4003f1289aba3b072a845fc640d8114b0f83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,955$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 41c | 1,424$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.59 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 23c | 830.45$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 53c | 533.72$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 5c | 520.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 508$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 492.23$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 21c | 407.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 52c | 400$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 17c | 343$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 64c | 294$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.24 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 40c | 257$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 14c | 222.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 195$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 178.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed No | 56c | 176.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.57 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 175$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 72c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 130.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 31c | 118.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 50c | 115.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…40e9backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 44c | 92.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 30c | 73.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 53.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 72c | 25.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Nemesis" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Yes won
- Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.