Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f918f4c706e2039ade745cc6c57b6760a81b4d4b440aa45fde229d0fd967d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,061$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.25 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes | 42c | 873.93$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 64c | 614.88$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.47 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 64c | 605.1$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked No | 61c | 548.94$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 22c | 500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…f4f2backed Yes | 35c | 414.52$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 395.53$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.11 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 260$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed No | 55c | 193$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…1dabbacked Yes | 32c | 186.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 154$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 33c | 141.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…d74fbacked Yes | 26c | 103.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +1,060.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…d88cbacked Yes | 31c | 100.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 91.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 84.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 69c | 76.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 62.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 55.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 31c | 42.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?this page
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?Yes won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.