Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25457d735ac8863606fccb1182f2f7a501c806cef9746b1ff3b257bd5ea41ed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,196$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.02 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 48c | 880.49$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…bb65backed Yes | 54c | 556.73$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 45c | 470$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 395.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.27 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 47c | 366.98$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 237.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…62ecbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 45c | 183$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…c8c1backed No | 49c | 155$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…08abbacked Yes | 57c | 155$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 139.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 138.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 44c | 133.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 109.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 46c | 102.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 68c | 101$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 48c | 92.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…cd7dbacked No | 42c | 81.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 78.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 45c | 64.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 65c | 64.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 55c | 60.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 34c | 56.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 45c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 46c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 43.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 41.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 57c | 39.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 48c | 36.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 51c | 34.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…e591backed Yes | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2db…140abacked No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 48c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 48c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…27f2backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 63c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked No | 51c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 55c | 20.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…fa1dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?this page
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% or less in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?Yes won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.2% in June?No won
- Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.