Movies · resolved market
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78bc140fdcc338b9a9306aa8b299657e3d01505766cf928276397f2f9b13a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 72c | 6,721$4,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.49 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 3c | 2,800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 68c | 2,085$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.24 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 2,062$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 23c | 1,812$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.11 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 25c | 1,385$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.13 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 29c | 1,149$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.82 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 25c | 1,041$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.24 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed Yes | 40c | 654.22$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.14 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…8605backed No | 2c | 644.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 28c | 486.24$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked No | 27c | 426.79$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 50c | 297.2$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…0783backed No | 8c | 262.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 31c | 249.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…d958backed No | 6c | 189.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 53c | 182$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd468…7e21backed Yes | 28c | 145$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 144.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 35c | 134.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 128$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 57c | 121.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e15ebacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 101.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 14c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 74c | 87.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 20c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked No | 24c | 72.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b7…f533backed No | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 73c | 66.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 25c | 65.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 25c | 55.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 39c | 43.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 57c | 36.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…f2e5backed Yes | 72c | 35.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…fc90backed Yes | 73c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 73c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 16.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 67c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "BEEF: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Running Point: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Should I Marry A Murderer?" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.