Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c91c8e140b8f4d9de109c4327bef2d1aa700ec36a0f7d045f10b9bfa7a4da31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 28c | 284.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 14c | 228.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 166.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 30c | 126.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…66efbacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 28c | 76.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 66c | 62.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 58.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 40.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…42c3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc9…dba2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?this page
- Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.