Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x105b2ca798a000f8f618239bb63cd71b1bc77550409e0c4cd19ef76daad5943f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 10c | 1,336$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 1,173$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…9999backed No | 12c | 1,086$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 9c | 993.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 760.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 647.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 8c | 578.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 10c | 562.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked No | 12c | 557.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.88 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 22c | 512$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.64 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 3c | 480$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 9c | 474.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 398.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 387.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 76c | 356.83$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 78c | 344$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 13c | 333.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 12c | 322$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 78c | 302$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 8c | 280.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 8c | 276.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 7c | 235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 231.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 80c | 224$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 14c | 222.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 9c | 214.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 10c | 211.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 209.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…a043backed No | 16c | 172.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 15c | 162$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 154.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 22c | 134$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 13c | 125.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 12c | 114.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 66c | 107$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 19c | 97.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 82.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 77c | 74.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 71c | 30.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…085abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?this page
- Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?No won
- Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?No won
- Will Don Ufford be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.