Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3183542c8a69eacbf389e02daa0969f5053019a8e43051fd4414edb765a5cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 1,029$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 61c | 838.61$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 37c | 814.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 672.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 47c | 551.3$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 361.81$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 7c | 359$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 80c | 297.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 172.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 169.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 160.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 157.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 67c | 149.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 128.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 127.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 124$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 117.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 116.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 105.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 102.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 95.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 71.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 69.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 43c | 65.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 65c | 59.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 56.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 50.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…d473backed Yes | 61c | 48.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 39.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 38.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed Yes | 60c | 31.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 60c | 31.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 29.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 26.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 71c | 23.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6284…ac6cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 55c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 65c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.