Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5efe02c104fe2daba3d33c9729ad4757e71e8074f6d1384b98525f16022e171b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 25c | 910.43$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.02 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 39c | 285.19$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 260.43$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2582backed No | 5c | 200.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 27c | 199.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 190$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 48c | 186$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 77c | 122.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 28c | 110.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…17e5backed Yes | 56c | 103.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 45c | 92.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 72c | 82.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 49c | 67.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 66.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 40c | 51.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 43c | 42.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 35.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 73c | 26.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…1293backed No | 64c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.