Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9adba37b861e52d48dcbf3f7eb1d276fc22380c749007fd25030d02fd9ce5825
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 18c | 2,596$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.44 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 2,159$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 1,772$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 77c | 1,228$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.37 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 38c | 1,155$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.37 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 898.8$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 592.24$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 26c | 481.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 404.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 364.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 352.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 319.97$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 61c | 319.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.32 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 309.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 8c | 234.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 214$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 198.03$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 6c | 174.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 171.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 137$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 136.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 134.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 29c | 134$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 76c | 123.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…0af1backed No | 74c | 121$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 59c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 99.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 64c | 96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 77c | 91.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 89.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 80.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 79.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked No | 62c | 79.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…c31dbacked Yes | 36c | 66.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 77c | 64.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 59.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 29c | 54.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 73c | 40.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 33c | 37.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 31.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 70c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…a9c6backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…953bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.