Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a8189c11dfcaaaabc5e53087695911c653ef9cf3b7baf4f2e091e50182e2311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 13c | 1,115$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,020$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 69c | 764.14$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 12c | 351.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.77 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 276.46$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 272.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 10c | 253.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.84 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked No | 10c | 206.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 20c | 185.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 27c | 185.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 180.12$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 17c | 165.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 26c | 154.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 21c | 146.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 79c | 141.31$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 42c | 128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 30c | 127.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 54c | 121$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 116.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 26c | 109.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 44c | 100.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 96.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 95.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 86.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 74c | 85.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 21c | 85.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 15c | 83.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 78c | 76.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 75.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 71.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 21c | 67.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 68c | 65.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 27c | 61.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 59.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 24c | 57.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 36c | 55.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 51.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 49.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 26c | 46.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 79c | 33.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 31.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 73c | 29.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 26.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 75c | 20.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…0218backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…d3f4backed No | 75c | 16.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.