AI · resolved market
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3832b841346af5a3737ccfd8a226802277e3d99c43337eebfa3557bdc09ad33d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,847$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 1,348$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.82 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…b632backed Yes | 7c | 1,336$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 15c | 982.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…befcbacked Yes | 9c | 839.14$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…244dbacked Yes | 14c | 702.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 9c | 319.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…f303backed Yes | 12c | 171.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…d781backed Yes | 18c | 140.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…b7aabacked Yes | 17c | 116.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…5a88backed Yes | 22c | 113.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…7c0bbacked Yes | 16c | 111.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 110.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1f7cbacked Yes | 14c | 76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…ed7dbacked Yes | 17c | 66.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…3204backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?this page
- Will any other model be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.