Olympics · resolved market

Will Eric Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e26fba7edad2265aa754fd08a807c2c64c8d85af2d72590316fb1aee468526

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,980 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	73c	899.69$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.89	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	22c	794$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.1	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5316…90c3backed Yes	29c	682.66$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b3a…1440backed No	73c	499.82$367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.95	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.16per pick	54cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked No	73c	465.2$340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.28	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes	29c	400$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.32	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa34…2ccbbacked Yes	27c	376.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	74c	361.51$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.66	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	77c	277.58$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.15	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	31c	267.65$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes	6c	267.32$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes	27c	219.66$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.31	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd246…fec7backed Yes	22c	163.32$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	80c	129.22$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.41	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-55%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	80c	105.84$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.17	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2d…6dc8backed Yes	29c	104.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed No	77c	101.25$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.29	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No	79c	100.36$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.08	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No	79c	99.78$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.95	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes	24c	96.31$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…d875backed Yes	29c	87.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked No	68c	66.99$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa285…9394backed No	78c	64.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.09	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No	73c	56.6$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56a8…3639backed No	74c	54.99$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…c3bdbacked Yes	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	75c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4644…a2b6backed Yes	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87ea…1f0fbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…0bebbacked Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1727…680ebacked No	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea72…d821backed No	72c	16.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.7	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	70cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Eric Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event