Olympics · resolved market

Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8a5d883b577e407d0e30de8d35b950970e81925ad41e5bf13de298f9763f71

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,259 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…cec7backed Yes	75c	411.68$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.76	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	15c	319.91$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.39	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	22c	272.73$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-58%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	11c	217$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2a4…d875backed Yes	18c	136.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2d…6dc8backed Yes	15c	136.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Yes	15c	83.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	36c	76.21$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No	55c	54.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.24per pick	41cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event